Dr Taizo Miyagi on the Outlook for Japanese Diplomacy in 2025
On January 10, the Foreign Press Center Japan (FPCJ) hosted Dr Taizo Miyagi, an expert in international political history and Japanese diplomacy and a professor at Chuo University, to explore the challenges and opportunities for Japanese diplomacy in 2025. Addressing an audience of journalists from around the world, Dr Miyagi traced the evolution of Japan’s post-war diplomacy and discussed the critical choices ahead.
As the world marks 80 years since the end of World War II, Japan finds itself at a critical juncture in its diplomatic history. The rapidly evolving geopolitical landscape, defined by China’s assertive actions in the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea, North Korea’s nuclear advancements and strained relations with South Korea, presents significant challenges for Japan. How should Japan navigate these turbulent waters to ensure domestic and regional stability?
Japan’s Diplomatic Evolution Since the Cold War
Dr Miyagi identified two distinct periods in Japan’s post-Cold War diplomacy. In the first, Japan grappled with its role in supporting U.S. military actions in the Middle East, including the Gulf War (1991) and the Iraq War (2003). During these years, Japan’s financial contributions, such as the $13 billion provided for the Gulf War, highlighted the nation’s struggle to balance international expectations with domestic constraints.
The second period saw a shift in focus to East Asia, driven by China’s maritime ambitions and North Korea’s nuclear provocations. In response, Japan strengthened its alliance with the United States, culminating in the 2015 security legislation under the second Abe administration. This legislation marked a turning point in Japan’s approach to regional security, emphasizing the importance of maintaining U.S. involvement in East Asia.

Challenges of 2025: Balancing Defense and Diplomacy
“I believe that diplomacy in the year 2025 has the potential to become a new turning point,” said Dr Miyagi. “The year 2025 can be characterized as a year where there is a very tough demand from Japan: Where do we find the fiscal resources to strengthen Japan’s defensive capabilities?” Looking ahead, he emphasized several challenges and considerations shaping Japan’s diplomatic and defense outlook.
One pressing issue is Japan’s need to boost its defense budget in response to pressure from the United States. Although the Kishida administration has pledged to enhance Japan’s defensive capabilities, the nation’s precarious fiscal health poses significant hurdles. Public resistance to tax increases for defense spending further complicates the situation, making it difficult to secure the necessary resources without widespread consensus.
Another critical concern is the declining recruitment for Japan’s Self-Defense Forces, a problem exacerbated by the country’s aging population. Meeting enlistment targets has become increasingly challenging, even as additional funding is allocated.
Dr Miyagi also underscored the importance of using fiscal resources wisely. He pointed to projects such as the Henoko Base in Okinawa, which has been criticized for its high costs, weak foundation and unclear benefits. He stressed the need for a more logical and strategic approach to ensure Japan’s defense spending is both effective and efficient.
One central issue is whether easing tensions in East Asia through diplomacy is achievable. Dr Miyagi emphasized the importance of diplomacy in easing tensions in the East Asian region, asserting that the possibility of doing so hinged on diplomatic efforts. He argued that Japan should leverage its leadership to pursue stability in East Asia through dialogue and cooperation. However, this requires overcoming obstacles such as China’s maritime ambitions and the longstanding abduction issue with North Korea. Within Japan’s political landscape, a hardline stance against these countries often garners public support, which can sometimes come at the expense of diplomatic efforts. “There is an issue of leadership and public opinion when it comes to Japanese diplomacy,” Dr Miyagi explained.
Another concern is Japan’s reliance on its alliance with the United States. While the U.S.-Japan alliance remains a cornerstone of Japan’s security strategy, Dr Miyagi warned of the risks posed by unilateral “deal-based” diplomacy under the second Trump administration. Dr Miyagi warned, “Trump’s diplomacy could make this region unstable,” with the potential for agreements between the U.S. and China, or the U.S. and North Korea to bypass Japan’s interests. On the other hand, Dr Miyagi suggested that such deal-focused diplomacy could invigorate diplomatic frameworks in East Asia, provided Japan actively participates in these efforts.
Relations with South Korea also remain strained, with lingering exhaustion on Japan’s part over historical issues. President Yoon’s administration adds a degree of unpredictability, further complicating bilateral relations. As a pioneer in the global trend of decolonization, Japan’s engagement with South Korea is crucial for fostering regional stability.
Finally, the potential for a Taiwan crisis looms large. Questions persist about the likelihood of a full-scale invasion or occupation of Taiwan by China, which would deliver a massive blow to the global economy. Dr Miyagi questioned China’s capacity to maintain stable governance in such a scenario, stressing the importance of maintaining the status quo to prevent escalation. “We should aim for the maintenance of a status quo,” he said. “We should never lose sight of making diplomatic approaches both to China and Taiwan.”

Opportunities for a New Diplomatic Framework
Dr Miyagi pointed to emerging ideas for regional cooperation, such as Komeito’s proposal for an Asian OSCE and the Communist Party’s advocacy for a Treaty of Amity and Cooperation in East Asia. These frameworks could provide a foundation for easing tensions and fostering collaboration in the region. “It’s of course very important to have a certain level of defense capability for Japan,” he said. “But in addition to that, I think Japan should try to make approaches in the quest for reducing tension in East Asia by diplomatic means.
Dr Miyagi underscored the need for Japan to navigate the complexities of 2025 with wisdom and resolve. By balancing defense spending with strategic diplomacy, Japan has the opportunity to play a pivotal role in stabilizing East Asia while ensuring its own security and prosperity. Japan’s actions in the coming year will shape not only its own future but also the stability of the broader Asia-Pacific region.

Dr Taizo Miyagi is a professor at Chūō University, where he specializes in international political history and Japanese foreign policy. He was a journalist with NHK after earning a degree in law from Rikkyō University. He then went on to earn his doctorate at Hitotsubashi University before teaching at the National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies and Sophia University. His works include prize-winning books such as Sengo Ajia chitsujo no mosaku to Nihon: “Umi no Ajia” no sengoshi 1957–1966 (Japan and Southeast Asia in the Quest for Order: The Cold War, Decolonization, and Development, 1957–66) and Sengo Nihon no Ajia gaikō (Japan’s Postwar Asian Diplomacy; coauthor).